Will Oscar ‘Push and Pull Like a Magnet’ to the “Shape of Water?”

This may be the weirdest Oscar season ever. Any buzz that any film had is kind of fading – even Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Maybe it’s because the Oscars are later this year, or perhaps the “Me Too” movement totally influenced the nominees. For whatever reason even frontrunner The Shape of Water seems like somewhat of a longshot to win big even though it will. Why? How many people do you know talk about that movie? For me, it’s a classic. I frickin’ loved that movie, but I don’t know anyone who has seen it or any theater that’s showing it. The only sure thing at the Oscars is Jimmy Kimmel killing it as host and all the acting categories have been locked up for months. It’ll be Oldman, McDormand, Janney, and Rockwell unless something really strange happens. But, it may. Like I said, there’s no buzz about this year’s awards. With that said, now seems totally appropriate for another jabroni to predict who’s going to win. Here I go again… I’ll say this if any film has a shot at making a stunning run at upsets it’s Get Out. That film opened a year ago, and we’re still talking about it.

Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will and Should Win: The Shape of Water. Again, I’m going to say with 13 nominations this frontrunner will end up with the biggest award of the night.

Dark Horse: Three Billboards has been winning everything so it wouldn’t shock me if a movie about a strong woman who fights for the memory of her daughter wins. It’s the movie for our times. Then again, Get Out could pull a Moonlight here and never count out Dunkirk.

Lead Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Will and Should Win: Gary Oldman. The dude is due. His performance is stellar, and it’s not even a contest in this surprisingly weak category.

Dark Horse: Nobody. Seabiscuit? Yeah, I’d say the horse from that movie has as good a chance as the other nominees here.

Lead Actress:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Will win: Frances McDormand is ruthless in Three Billboards and will deliver the night’s best speech. People want her to win, and she deserves it. However..

Should win: I want Sally Hawkins to win. She crushed it in Shape without saying a word.

Dark Horse: Don’t be shocked if Saorse Ronan pulls the upset of the year here. How do you not love her?

Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will win: Sam Rockwell and good. He’s been too good for too long.

Should win: Woody Harrelson is amazing in Three Billboards, and is often overlooked in this ensemble.

Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe might get votes for a Lifetime Achievement Award thing, but don’t count on it.

Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Will win: Allison Janney. The epitome of scene stealer, Janney can add some more hardware to her 107 Emmy’s.

Should win: I’d prefer Laurie Metcalf here for her amazing performance.

Dark Horse: Metcalf. This is a two-way horse race and Janney’s coming out on top.

Director:
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Will and Should win: Guillermo del Toro. He won the DGA. There’s no question he’s winning this. The only question is how powerful is the #metoo movement to propel Gerwig? I don’t think it’s strong enough, and in the end, del Toro made a masterpiece.

IN BRIEF – the rest…

Animated Feature:
Will win: Coco
Animated Short:
Will win: I’m guessing but I’m saying “Garden Party.”
Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory (Easiest call of the night!)

Original Screenplay:
Will win: “Get Out”
Should Win: “The Big Sick”
Dark Horse: “Three Billboards” or “Lady Bird” – expect the former if it’s winning Best Pic

Cinematography:
Will win: “Dunkirk”
Should win: “Blade Runner 2049”

Best Documentary Feature:
Will win: “Icarus”

Best Documentary Short Subject:
Will win: “Traffic Stop”

Best Live Action Short Film:
Will win: “My Nephew Emmett”

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will win: “A Fantastic Woman” (I’m predicting this thought “The Square” likely will.)

Film Editing:
Will win: “Dunkirk”
Dark Horse: “Baby Driver” or “Shape”

Sound Editing:
Will win: “Dunkirk”

Sound Mixing:
Will win: “Dunkirk”

Production Design:
Will win: “The Shape of Water”

Original Score:
Will win: “The Shape of Water”

Original Song:
Will win: “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”

Makeup and Hair:
Will win: “Darkest Hour”

Costume Design:
Will Win: “Phantom Thread”

Visual Effects:
Will win: “War for the Planet of the Apes“